October 2025 Newsletter

Investor Stamina: 

• Data, data, data…. Moody’s machines watch for recessions.  
• How computer robots trade
• Globalization evolves. 

Family Preparedness

• Oct 30 Estate Planning Education Session with Jane Graham 
• Feed your brain resources

Appreciate community

• Rochester Fringe Festival – better every year 
• Elvio’s – new fun on the Bay 
• The Community Theater – grows into a new location

Opinion based on Moody’s machine-learning based indicator

A Third Of U.S. Economy Already In Recession Or At High Risk, Moody's Zandi Warns

August 26, 2025 • Jason Ma This article originally appeared in Fortune and was provided by Reuters.

Moody’s Analytics chief economist, Mark Zandi continued to sound the alarm on the risk of a downturn, warning that states accounting for nearly a third of U.S. GDP are already in a recession or at high risk of slipping into one. Another third is treading water, while the last third is still expanding. 

For now, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker points to continued nationwide growth, though it’s expected to decelerate to 2.3% in the third quarter from 3% in the second quarter. Here’s how the states—and one federal 

district(*)—break down:

• Recession/high risk (22): Wyoming, Montana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Kansas, Massachusetts, Washington, Georgia, New Hampshire, Maryland, Rhode Island, Illinois, Delaware, Virginia, Oregon, Connecticut, South Dakota, New Jersey, Maine, lowa, West Virginia, District of Columbia*.
• Treading water (13): Missouri, Ohio, Hawaii, New Mexico, Alaska, New York, Vermont, Arkansas, California, Tennessee, Nevada, Colorado, Michigan. Expanding (16): South Carolina, Idaho, Texas, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, Nebraska, Indiana, Louisiana, North Dakota, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Utah, Wisconsin.

Southern states are generally the strongest, but their growth is slowing.  

The U.S. economy is being largely powered by spending of the well-to-do.   “Looking at the data, it’s not a mystery why most Americans feel like the economy isn’t working for them.”

Zandy said Moody’s machine-learning-based leading recession indicator put the odds of a downturn in the next 12 months at 49%.

He pointed out that more than half of industries are already shedding workers, a sign that’s accompanied past recessions. “Also telling is that employment is declining in many industries. In the past, if more than half the ≈400 industries in the payroll survey were shedding jobs, we were in a recession,” he explained. “In July, over 53% of industries were cutting jobs, and only health care was adding meaningfully to payrolls.”

When computers get to trade on their own…..

Researchers at the U of Penn Wharton School and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology let a bunch of their bots loose into simulated trading markets.  The bots “refused to trade aggressively” based on an implicit understanding “that widespread aggressive trading could create more market volatility.”  The bots stuck with conservative trading behavior “because they were all making money and therefore stopped engaging in competitive behaviors with one another.  The Week, August 15, 2025, pg 33

KR Comment:  Huh!  Robots are not subject to “emotion and the flow of money”, no fear and greed, no FOMO (fear of missing out).  Our strategists navigate based on data.  They keep you from your worst self.    :- )

Boomer Reflection:  WWII was the origin of new technology that magnified manufacturing and the expansion of the middle class.  Evolve……Computers created new capabilities and industries.  Brain power became the US strength.  Brawn moved offshore to promote developing countries. Middle class expands abroad. Evolve……Machine brain power becomes the new power that will impact the workforce, skill sets and opportunities to prosper.  Oh Boomers, we landed in a sweet spot of history!  We were kids when this all started.  We saved and accumulated as this accelerated.  We retire as power shifts from people to machines.  We were lucky.  Now think Family Preparedness for the future. 

Family Preparedness 

Don’t Leave a Mess……Do It Now – Oct 30 at 10 am.

As mentioned, Jane Graham, estate attorney with Bond, Schoenck and King (BSK) offers our clients an educational session to clarify your questions as the world evolves in new ways.  We suggest she walk through the client worksheet as a way to stimulate your questions, structure your thinking and unique issues.  

Questions we hear:  Should I give my house to my kids now?  Do I need a trust?  What do I do about the family cottage shared with my siblings?  What about my dog? Is my old POA good enough?  My Health Care Proxy moved to Canada…Am I OK?

Pause for thought.  Assess your readiness.  Spring into needed action.

BSK offers time, place and hospitality.  Join Waterstone and Jane Graham on Thursday, Oct 30 at 10 am.  BSK is 350 Linden Oaks, third floor.  Morning hospitality is coffee/tea and pastries.  RSVP to Josh or me….limit is a cozy 12 at this session.  We will schedule another session if there is more interest.  We will send you a client profile worksheet as a thought promoter.  Add any dietary requests:  Gluten free, alternate milk, etc.    

Being hit by a truck on your way home from Wegmans is always an option…..Don’t leave a mess….Do it now.