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November 2025 Newsletter

Waterstone November 2025 Newsletter - Earnings still strong.

Uniquely Waterstone for our unique Waterstone clients 

In this Issue: 

  • CNR Speedometers – still neutral +
  • The confusion around data
  • Due Diligence-a safeguard
  • More “new, hip and cool investments”
  • Groucho’s not laughing
  • Estate planning – paying the executor

CNR Nov Speedometers–20 economic indicators, looking forward 6-9 months

There has been little movement in the speedometers in 2025 to date despite the confusion in so many other arenas. This month the Fed cut moved interest rates to touch green/growth. This impacted the yield curve now also touching green/growth. Neutral means strategists are focused on their basic stock/bond balance described in your risk profile. Adjustment have been into higher quality issues with solid earnings as protection from uncertainty. General portfolios have careful allocations to the Magnificent Seven because they continue to have earnings and momentum. You just don’t have a trunkful that will make you an overnight tech-rich.

CNR.com/Insights/speedometers for detailed description of each indicator and updates.

“Without data,you’re just another guy with an opinion.”


The government isn’t releasing economic data. Private firms are stepping in. Without official numbers on jobs and inflation, Wall Street and Washington are turning to restaurant reservations, Broadway ticket sales and alternate surveys to fill in the gaps short term.

But without key federal figures, including data on job creation and inflation, it’s become increasingly difficult to gauge the state of the economy.

“The good news is that there is a lot of private data — it’s readily available, comes out frequently and keeps us from fumbling in the dark,” Slok said.1 But the lights are dimming as confusion reigns.

Example:

  1. Lower-Income Americans Are Missing Car Payments
    Inflation and a tough job market are making it harder for some people to pay back the car loans they signed in better times.
  2. Wealthier Americans, buoyed by a stock market that keeps setting records, have continued to spend freely. Lower-income households — stung by persistent inflation and navigating a labor market that is losing momentum — are pulling back.2


The task ahead for the Fed is poised to only get more difficult. The Fed goals are low, stable inflation and a healthy labor market which are in tension with each other. The economic data they follow most closely is not being released. They punt.

WFS: This confusion will infiltrate investment systems. We are thankful professionals are assessing our strategies and positions for quality and relevance.
1 The government isn’t releasing economic data. Private firms are stepping in. NY Times Oct 24, 2025 By Abha Bhattarai and David J. Lynch
2 Lower-Income Americans Are Missing Car Payments. NY Times Oct 20, 2025 by Sydney Ember

WFS believes DUE DILIGENCE is critical for your portfolio well-being. See the basics listed out by ASSETMARK that guards us from the enticing claims and wild constructions.


Assetmark’s Five Core Beliefs are the Foundation of the Due Diligence Process.

Josh gathers every portfolio reallocation notices made to client AM portfolios.  Stop in and peruse this process in action to strengthen your confidence in attentive diligence.

There are so many things out there creating an atmosphere of uncertainty.  We need all the quality help we can get!

Even More “New Hip ‘n Cool Investments”…

Private equity, venture capital and private credit, once the privileged risk of institutions and wealthy individuals, are now being repackaged fast and furious for the masses. Regulations loosen allowing these new assets entry into 401K programs and personal portfolios. There’s lots of buzz and flying numbers without requiring transparency for their people, philosophy, and often even their projects. These structures place illiquid securities into vehicles that trade in real time. Values are posted based on calculations. An investor really doesn’t know what it’s worth until they go to sell it and sees what the market will bear.

The concern in the industry: Who is really benefiting from this?
WFS: We are thankful that our investment partners screen opportunities.

Groucho Marx, no laughing matter!

If you think these new trends plus cryptocurrency, online sports betting are a good thing maybe take a lesson from Groucho Marx. In the run-up to the crash, even the famous comedian was buying stock on margin and regularly spending hours at his local brokerage, the Newman Brothers & Worms branch in Great Neck, N.Y., reading the ticker tape.

When he questioned the branch manager about the strength of some stocks, he was told: “Look, Mr. Marx, this thing is bigger than both of us. Don’t fight it. Just be assured that you’re going to wind up a very wealthy man.”

After the crash, Marx ended up having to mortgage his home to pay back the margin loans. He tracked down the manager and berated him.

“Aren’t you the fellow who said nothing could go wrong — that we were in a world market?” Groucho asked.

“I guess I made a mistake,” the embarrassed branch manager replied.

“No, I’m the one who made a mistake,” Marx retorted. “I listened to you.”

WFS: We are thankful for due diligence.

Estate Planning Ed Session Spill Over – Paying the Executor

Estate Planning Ed Session Spill Over – Paying the ExecutorOur Oct 30 Estate Planning session with Jane Graham of Bond, Schoeneck and King covered lots of questions including paying executors.  The executor has to collect and distribute the value of assets.  The discussion wandered away before concluding the discussion of costs.

NY State caps commission as follows:

  • 5% of the first $100,000
  • 4% of the following $200,000
  • 3% of the following $700,000
  • 2.5% of the following $4,000,000

Commission example: if the assets your executor collects and distributes have a total value of $300,000, the commission would be $13,000 .  Per the chart above,   5% of the first $100,000 = $5,000 and 4% of the next $200,000 = $8,000. Then $5,000 + $8,000 = $13,000.  It’s taxable.

WFS:  We thank Jane Graham and BSK for their competencyand hospitality.  We will do this again in 2026.

Speaking of help!

We routinely go to Los Cabos, Mexico in mid-Oct as the Pacific prepares for robust marine life. It’s a busy season for turtles with over 4000 turtles released in one week from our one beach.  This year three Pacific storms passed in succession bringing a little rain, big waves and a shocking inflow of plastics.  It was cleaned up quickly but we humans need a better plan. Good Luck little turtles!

Thanksgiving is a pause to appreciate the people and the blessings in our lives. We are thankful to have you as our client.

Note: Kathy will be in the Office January and also available by phone and zoom. Josh is local, accessible and always appreciated.

Thanks if you've read to the end. You're our kind of people.
Reach out to us with your questions, comments, needs. 

Securities and investment advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., member FINRA /SIPC. Osaic Wealth is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth.

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