June 2024 Newsletter
“Things are good. No, really — they are!”
Market activity continues to be driven by:
labor market- The labor market remains robust and serves as an engine for economic growth. Employers added 175,000 new jobs in April, and the unemployment rate stands at a healthy 3.9%.
strong corporate earnings environment- Corporate earnings for the first quarter were strong on both top and bottom lines (sales and profits), with gains spread across multiple sectors.
U.S. inflationary data & expectations for interest rate reductions - The most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed prices increasing 3.4% over the past twelve months. Modest interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely in the second half of this year.
Looking forward, the above chart is the price expansions investors seem willing to pay for $1 worth of earnings. Remember when the early tech stocks era had multiples in the stratosphere because they had no earnings? The years of Y2K and the tech bubble! Tiny earnings were sold at multiples exceeding 100 x.
Given this chart, the technology focused rallies may be due for a healthy period of consolidation. There are plenty of news of good earnings growth among other stocks and many industries.
Given this good news for the next 6 to 9 months, Relax! It’s that time of year again. Go outside and play!!
TWO AMERICA, inflation sorting people into tribes.
This is “an economy of the haves and have-nots,” per Michael Reid, an economist for RBC Capital Markets. “The haves just have so much more
spending power.”
What’s making “the haves” so flush: They tend to have little to no mortgage debt or car or student loans, and their stock-market-tied
retirement accounts have accumulated healthy gains to finance vacations or nights out.
But the less-affluent are feeling the pinch. They’ve blown through their pandemic savings, and they’re racking up credit card and other loan
debt. A surge in “buy now, pay later” programs may be masking America’s “phantom” consumer debt problem. NYTimes, DealBook May 10, 2024
Americans are falling behind on their credit card bills. Nearly one in five credit card users have maxed out on their borrowing, according to
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. People under 30 and those who live in low-income neighborhoods are more likely to be at or close to their credit limit. The debt is a sign borrowers are feeling the strain of rising prices and high interest rates. NPR Suzanne Nuyen 5/15/24
June Graduations!
I met Dr Greta Oliver in Mexico. She is an educator on a mission!
Her books are roadmaps that helps students and their families navigate the path from prospective college student to college graduate and beyond with less stress, more ease, and without experiencing the many pitfalls along the road.
We have a few of these books at the office. Review the books to appreciate their strengths. Consider a mentor copy and a student copy so family mentor (parent or grandparent) and student can share the concepts and vocabulary to have focus, meaningful conversations.
If you have 10th graders who are likely college bound, come for College Roadmap.
If you have new college graduates, come for Career Roadmap.
Leadership Roadmap is currently Kindle version and awaits print.
She is writing for middle schoolers and I am on the review team!
Rochester Jazz Festival – World class!
This is a gem of the Universe and it’s driveable from Rochester!- The setting is the magnificence of Western NY in summer.
- The programing is built around the pillars of knowledge, arts, religion and leisure.
- Click here for the knowledge themes
- CHQ has become an annual Roth summer treat. Call for a nudge if you have CHQ interests and want to learn the ropes.
The Blue Angel Documentary at IMAX! Be dazzles on the big screen. Take young folks to be dazzled by possibilities! Watch for this offering in
our IMAX theater.
Lucky us!