July 2025 Newsletter
MidYear Review Basics – Wait and See
CNR’s Speedometers are unchanged from neutral since April. There’s been lots of talk and little sweeping movements enacted with a July 9 deadline to a 3 month (April) tariff pause. (https://www.cnr.com/insights/speedometers.html)
The basics today:
- People earning money/Employment: Unemployment is low. However, new college graduate hires are low as employers wait to see what happens with tariffs.
- Consumers spending money: Data reports spending is slowing. Less spending means less corporate earnings.
- Emotion: Fear and Greed Index 7 indicators clock a health greed. (https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed?utm_source=hp)
- Earnings: Slowing growth with concern about tariffs
- Inflation: Currently 2.4% with guesses of 4% in 6 months ( Fitch Ratings)
- Strength of the dollar: International stocks are outperforming US stocks.
It Keeps on Ticking: The economy might be slowing, buffeted by tariff trade uncertainty and geopolitical strife, but the sturdy pillars of consumer spending and a remarkably innovative industrial sector are powering the markets and the economy through this period of elevated uncertainty. Portfolio managers Martin Jacobs and John Queen, Capital Group’s midyear outlook webinar, 6/26/25
I own Bitcoin??
More ETFs Have Bitcoin Exposure Than You Might Think
Written By Andrew Rice of AIM (formerly Beaumont Capital) July 1, 2025
“I was genuinely surprised to learn the wide variety of ETFs that have indirect ownership of Bitcoin when I conducted this analysis (of the holdings within considered ETFs). It serves as a good reminder that it is critical to look into the composition of any ETF being purchased to get a complete picture of the risks involved. Prior to today, I would not have necessarily expected that my vanilla S&P Small Cap ETF (IJR) has indirect ownership of 3,324 Bitcoin (about $357 million worth).”
Our Investment partners do their due diligence on our behalf. They decide if crypto is a worthy “bet”. There’s enough to add a little kick given the current momentum, but not enough to be ruinous. AssetMark does their due diligence of our strategic partners on our behalf. Daily work occurs as you “buy and hold”.
Microsoft Bing
AI, a new species and maybe mankind’s last invention
Thomas Friedman, a three-time Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and foreign affairs columnist for the New York Times.
Thomas Friedman: You know, Jeff, I say two things, and, again, it's part of the craziness of this moment. Let's start at 30,000 feet and then come down to the battlefield. At 30,000 feet, you and I are having this discussion on the eve of the greatest technological revolution in human history. We are very close to birthing a new species, not a new machine, a new artificially intelligent species. And it's going to be with us some time while Trump is president. It is not going to change one thing. It's going to change everything. We are not talking about that at all. So, that's, I would say, number one, under that technological revolution. And, you know, one of the things they say about A.I., it'll actually be mankind's last invention. Because once we invent that, it will invent everything else. That's going to be a big deal. (Washington Week 6.6.25)
Abraham Verghese, a bestselling author (The Covenant of Water), Stanford professor, and infectious disease doctor, was the principal speaker at Harvard’s 374th Commencement on May 29. More than 9,000 graduates from the Class of 2025, representing all of Harvard University’s Schools, streamed into Harvard Yard for the commencement.
Click here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mjPt7cZW1k&t=8s) for this powerful presentation of philosophy to launch bright minds into the world. (29+ minutes). Share with the college students in your circles…. Experience a little bit of Harvard!