Broker Check

February 2024 Newsletter

February 2024 Newsletter – Signs of Reassurance!

Uniquely Waterstone for our unique Waterstone clients 

In this Issue: 

  • Neutral, neutral!!

  • CNR Speedometers 

  • Lower interest rate choice for stocks or bonds?

  • The folly of financial forecasts:  strategists blush.

  • More on the Magnificent Seven – They are pricey!

  • Cryptocurrency ETFs trading enters NYSE - Know What You Own

  • Waterstone Materials: Website- Search by these categories

  • Facebook – Timely articles

  • New client email:  admin@ waterstonefinancialservices. com


Yellow is the Federal Reserve’s color of choice!  

Subtle shifts this month move closer to dead-center neutral. Equity market valuation quiver at the line of neutral and slow. Intl Economic Outlooks continues to hover at the red zone boundary.  You can visit the CNR.com/insights/speedometers and click on each gauge for a description of the category. 

The Federal Reserve is patient to see if lower inflation holds before lowering rates. 

Markets are impatient and anticipate lower rates sooner than later as the stimulant for more growth. Several sources think the market has already priced in 1.5% interest rate cuts.  Impatient!

What works best for you at this stage of your life?  Do you need income?  stability? growth?  In a world with longevity, you may need to say
“yes” to all.

The folly of forecasts. We admire Jeff Gundlach of Doubleline Capital as a gifted strategist in the bond market arena. Each year he discusses his outlook for the upcoming year and reviews his past year’s accuracy.  Only 2 of 10 predictions for 2023 were correct.  (Advisor Perspective, Gundlach: For 2024, Expect Lower Rates, Higher Volatility and a Recession, Robert Huebscher, 1/10/24.)

Likewise, Beaumont strategists reviewed their 2023 predictions and find they were accurate 5 of 10.  Beaumont also listed their biggest surprises:  

  • Market willingness to reward any company connected to artificial intelligence (AI).
  • Investor willingness to quickly return to some of the speculative businesses (cryptocurrency) despite no-use basis outside of speculation, money laundering and third world economies spending/saving efforts.
  • The weakness of the Chinese economy
    (https://blog.investbcm.com/4q23-review-and-outlook)

 Know that strategists run their models on honed systems, disciplines, methodologies and not on the intuitive predictions of their organizational leaders. Even the smart guys are surprised by life’s twist of fate. 

Magnificent Seven to the Magnificent Many?  The really big stocks of the S&P 500 pushed to new highs based on earnings growth, momentum and are now viewed as pricey.  Strategists carefully watch the other 493 to understand what’s happening with their underlying earnings. The markets may shift their focus from their narrow view.  Hence, our investment partners navigate on our behalf.

Interestingly, AI appears to be more evolution and less revolution.  In its year of public release, ChatGPT has not taken over the world. 

Cryptocurrency ETFs trading enters NYSE - Know What You Own

In 2009 cryptocurrency started as a white paper by an anonymous author with pseudo-name, Satoshi Nakamoto. “Bitcoin:  A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”

Crypto lolled around gathering a following.  The pandemic arrives.  Folks are home.  Boom!  Add challenge to crypto validity with FTX collapse. Bust!  Nonetheless, now crypto gets a foothold on the NYSE. Click on the link below to access our review of crypto’s crawl onto the NYSE for an overview of two books and several webinars. We’re here for more conversation as we continue to keep watch over this weird development. (Chinese proverb - May we live in interesting times!)


Waterstone materials-website:  Note that we will remove 6 months of newsletters and some blog postings to keep our site relevant.  Please review and let us know if there are any blogs that have long term benefit to you or your family and friends.  We will keep items that are helpful. 

You can the search bar for articles using headings:  

  • Investor stamina (investment insights)
  • Family-Preparedness (family decision topics)
  • Money Infrastructure (systems: taxes, insurance, health)
  • Chip Conley (philosophy of aging).
  • About Waterstone (description of our focus and services)

Waterstone materials – Facebook:  We post short, timely articles throughout the month on Facebook.  “Like” us on Facebook for added insight.

 

Client Service Email:  admin@waterstonefinancialservices.com

Email overload only grows.  We add a special client email address for better visibility.  Please direct your email communications to above where Josh and Kathy both see them.


Click the button to view our report on Cryptocurrency. 

Cryptocurrency Report

Note: Kathy will next be in the office February 1st to February 10, 2024. Cheers to Josh who is local, available and always appreciated.

Thanks if you've read to the end. You're our kind of people.
Reach out to us with your questions, comments, needs. 

Securities offered through American Portfolios Financial Services, Inc.(APFS) Member FINRA /SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through American Portfolios Advisors, Inc. (APA), an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Waterstone Financial Services is not affiliated with APFS and APA. 

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