December 2025 Newsletter
Dow Jones Industrial Average thru Nov 29, 2025
Investor Stamina: Bear markets are part of the market cycle. It’s the cleaning process. Earnings are assessed. Relevance is tested. Weakened companies are jettisoned and strength is identified. No bear market is forecasted but we visit this topic when “all is calm”.
On average, a bear market (down 20%+) happens about every 3-4 years. The markets haven’t had a good cleaning in quite some time. Investors have been over-focused on the many “new hip and cool” investments and the prospects of AI.
Today’s bear markets trigger computer trading reactions. Hence, a bear market may be exaggerated as computer active “Sell at $XX price” kick into action and add to the downward momentum.
Investors confident in the due diligence of their portfolio (WFS Nov Newsletter) can ride this with greater calm and less angst if/when bear markets appear. Our investment partners navigate on our behalf.
Acknowledged strengths:
Strong earnings among the technology leaders, strength in consumer spending that shows in corporate earnings, stability in labor, inflation is near 2% target.
Among the concerns:
Equity/Stock markets:, over valuation of leading stocks in indexes, less reliable economic information, more unregulated assets accepted on exchanges, “wealth creation” alternatives such as cryptocurrencies, collector coins, sports betting, private equity.
Credit/Debt/Bond markets – the flood of lower-quality private equity, loosening of regulations for banks.
(Aside: Among our holiday guests in Mexico was a high level, fixed income “technician” building portolios with one of the major mutual fund companies….Good conversations and the re enforcement of “buy quality”. If you have a “unique” idea, now is the time they will let you do it. Buyer beware….garbage lending.
End of Year View of tax on trades.
Capital gain distributions can occur for a variety of reasons—such as a fund manager selling a position that’s reached its target price. However, as the industry continues to shift away from mutual funds toward ETFs, many firms are facing net outflows, prompting additional sales to meet redemptions—often regardless of tax efficiency.
Industry Observations
(Please note: these are estimates only—final numbers may differ, though historically they’ve been fairly accurate.)
- Fidelity is projecting up to 22% long-term capital gains in its Foreign Large Growth strategy. Franklin Templeton, American Century, MFS, and JPMorgan also have notable estimates in their U.S. funds.
- Capital Group expects low double-digit LTCG distributions in funds such as New Economy, Growth Fund of America, and Investment Company of America.
- Franklin Templeton appears to have the most funds with LTCG estimates above 10%.
- Most funds expect short-term capital gains below 4%, with American Century U.S. Mid-Cap Growth among the highest at 3.5%. Which Funds Are Paying Out Big Distributions? | Morningstar
Holding mutual funds inside an IRA can eliminate the tax impact of these distributions entirely.
For taxable accounts utilizing Tax Management Services (TMS), it’s important to note that TMS does not offset fund-level capital gain distributions—clients will still receive those.
That said, our investment partners TMS has been highly effective in generating tax alpha this year….minimizing tax by strategically offsetting gains and losses as opportune. In 2024 (a relatively low-volatility year that made tax-loss harvesting more challenging), TMS still delivered an average of 1.29% tax alpha. While official 2025 results aren’t available yet, preliminary data suggests even stronger outcomes. Again, our investment partners navigate on our behalf.
Estate Planning Education (Nov session 2025) – “Transfer on Death” (TOD) is an easy strategy that provides beneficiary designation for a variety of non- qualified/non-retirement accounts, Our Nov speaker, Jane Graham of Bond, Schoeneck and King sends this link: https://www.monroecounty.gov/clerk-records as insight into using this this format for small accounts with clear focus and intentions. It gives you a look at this process that you can use directly with the Monroe County Clerk’s office. Not sure? Then it’s worth passing the idea by the pros in the know. Have a trustworthy attorney ready at your beck and call. Don’t leave a mess. (nag, nag, nag! 😊)
Estate Planning Education is planned for Nov 2026. Dias de los Muertos! We celebrate the flow of life.
Estate planning…..Your Legacy in Family Pictures
Photography was a medium of memories for families. As technologies shift, often families don’t know what to do.
Recently an elderly friend passed. He was born on a ranch in Wyoming. He went to med school at U of R and married a gal from Pittsford. They moved to a small town in Northern Utah and lived an extraordinary life. There were thousands of pictures. The daughter lovingly and patiently winnowed the story to 1000 pictures. A young grand daughter uploaded them to the funeral home website where they were expertly consolidated into a flowing presentation set to music. This beautiful program runs for 57 minutes. It’s available on the funeral home’s website with options to purchase the presentation on thumb drives and CDs. THAT’S a creative solution!
That’s also a reminder to consider End of Life Pre-Planning to save anxiety during times of grief. Our friendly reminder……Don’t leave a mess.
Yachts at Lake Worth Harbor near Palm Beach, Fla. They are getting bigger.
Sharpening Our Saw – Qtr 4 is busy with requirements.
- Each year, Josh and I complete 24 hrs of Continuing Education on Industry topics.
- I attend an annual conference for Certified Financial Transitionist (held at West Palm Beach).
- Josh attends broker-dealer meetings to stay in synch with the rapid changes.
As you may have noticed, the regulations and paperwork are more-structured and strict as the industry tries to protect investors.
Meanwhile, we have more unregulated investments approved for the marketplace direct and online, more money sifting into strategies with no tangibles. As previously questioned: Who does this benefit?
Getting kids to talk about school
by Amy Morin, psychologist CNBC, Nov 9, 2025
Here are seven questions that lead to productive conversations while also helping kids grow mentally stronger:
How was school today? ……..fine, OK, boring…
Amy Morin suggests these questions.
- What was the best part of your day?
- What’s a mistake your learned from today?
- Who were you proud of today?
- What’s one think that would have made today better?
- Who did you help today?
- What was the most interesting thing you learned today?
- What’s something new you’d like to try?
AI in Action!!
Self-Driving Taxis Are Catching On. Are You Ready?
With the arrival of Amazon’s Zoox robot taxi in San Francisco to compete with Waymo, autonomous services are gaining momentum. But there are pros and cons. NYTimes 11-30-25.
Also note, AI was not used as editor of this newsletter. 😊
More holidays ahead! Just when you think you’re working off the turkey calories, seasonal delicacies creep towards you! Enjoy this special time with family, friends and food. Our best wishes for a season of peace and pleasure for you, your families and friends.