August 2025 Newsletter
Summer markets float along.
Strategists report portfolios remain neutral relative to their respective benchmarks at the headline level, while tweaking risk exposure under the hood.
Workers continue to work. Consumers continue to spend. Credit is starting to build a bit.
Our strategists’ speedometers, barometers, gauges remain steady at neutral. Investor indicators remain robust per CNN’s Fear & Greed Index.
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
The Era of Magical Thinking
Chautauqua Lecture Series’ Week Five theme, “Innovation in Capitalism: How to Meet 21st-Century Challenges?” Most noteworthy for Waterstone thinking was Dr Mahir Desai PhD of Harvard Business and Harvard Law. The key contributions of his discussion, The Era of Magical Thinking:
“I want to discuss just how odd these two decades have been and how they’ve changed the nature of the American economy and corrupted financial markets.” The concept of magical thinking is detached from economic reality and doesn’t value traditional economics, according to Desai. It’s about growth of business over profit.
His note of oddities: What’s with these “mechanisms for manufacturing wealth, extracting wealth and to some degree, redistributing wealth,” that are unconnected to the creation of value?
- Introduction of crypto, meme, NTFs, sports betting – looking for big payoffs now (momentum) vs long term payoffs by value (investing).
- Private Equity – unregulated deals between private, nontraded companies
- SPACs – (Special Purpose Acquisition Company), “blank-check company” allowed to raise money for a fund to participate in some unspecified, future, promising purchase – speculation that “We don’t know what it is yet but you’re going to make a lot of money!”
- China evolution “at all cost” that’s not likely to be replicated.
His outlook: Although the decline may not be sharp, Desai believes that this short-term economic trend will die. Financial markets may very well take the path of Japan, a long stretch of flat markets, to clean this out and refocus.
“Hopefully, we return to the wonderful notions of value, value creation, common sense and tradeoffs that are where value is really created and is what economies should be doing.”
So we repeat: “Our investment partners navigate on our behalf.” Our mandate: protection and participation through the skills of vetted high competency, monitored investment strategists. Whew!
Connect by office visit or online to review how your portfolio is positioned for what’s ahead.
More inflation in our future?
Inflation is not just one number. It’s shifts in life.
Another Found Rochester Gem!
Stacy K Floral……Have a Tea Party!!
I wandered into Stacy K Florist needing an exceptional floral arrangement (Arrangements are no longer a Wegmans service. I needed exceptional!!) Stacy K is on 43 Russel St off University, north of Gleason Works. The bldg shares space with Nosh Restaurant and Scratch Bakeshop with easy parking.
Walk into Stacy K and it’s a big wow! The studio is full of plants, unique home furnishings, jewelry and accessories, gift items, local Rochester artists and gifts, and of course FLOWERS!!
Walk thru the shop and discovery an experience - an exceptional, casual coffee shop with a pastry menu from Scratch… What a special place to take a young girl for a little celebration, meet family and friends for quality time or go off on a solo adventure! Lucky us! Lucky us!!
“It’s only 2.5 hrs away but…..how do I do Chautauqua?”
Chautauqua! “There is no place like it. No resort. No spa. Not anywhere else in the country, or anywhere in the world – it is at once a summer encampment and a small town, a college campus, an arts colony, a music festival, a religious retreat and the village square – and there’s no place no place- with anything like its history.” David McCullough, historian and author
Organizing a CHQ experience means finding lodging, food, wandering extraordinary grounds and activity choices. On your own it can seem overwhelming. Consider one of these options to help you navigate this unique world.
CHQ Road Scholar presence was noticed this year. We compared. It is reasonably priced, well-structured with flexible weekly bookings!! Sign up. Show up. Road Scholar will organize you each day.
The historic onsite Atheneum Hotel package offers quality food, lodging, and grounds ticket packages comparably priced by day. Week-ends are transition days. Programming runs strong M-F. Come for a couple of days and see if CHQ speaks to your soul!
CHQ.org; https://www.chq.org/visit/accommodations/athenaeum-hotel/; https://www.roadscholar.org/find-an-adventure/20581/The-Chautauqua-Experience-in-Summer