Broker Check

April 2025 Newletter

Waterstone March 2025 Newsletter - Policy Uncertainty

Uniquely Waterstone for our unique Waterstone clients 

In this Issue: 

  • Speedometer tweaks in March
  • Strategist thinking: First Qtr 2025
  • Make your plan. Work your plan
  • Beaumont Capital Management rebrands as AIM; AIM Qtr1 client webinar April 10 at 11 AM est
  • Phishing, life online
  • Lucky Rochester! Wilcot Cancer Institute award!
  • Issues of Longevity: Senior Realtor, Dennis Shew
  • Science Friday – in the audience!!

City National Rochdale (CNR) updated their speedometers and shared in a lengthy discussion 3/25/25. 

https://www.cnr.com/insights/speedometers.html?year=2025&month=march

Current thinking by various strategists:

  • Growth is slowing but still healthy. (Labor, wage and income, spending data still look intact.)
  • Inflation is cooling from higher levels.
  • Consumers are beginning to slow their spending out of concern for multitude of changes and worry about their jobs.
  • The Fed remains more likely to cut than hike. Current thinking is 1 or 2 cuts in the 2nd half of 2025.
  • Earnings per share growth is likely to drive 2025 returns. (S&P 500 4th qtr earnings: more than 75% of stocks had positive earning surprises and 65% had positive revenue surprises.1) 2024 was a record year for dividend growth.
  • Market valuations are high, but the recent pullback has helped improve overvaluation and overconcentration. Security selection is focused on quality.
  • Tariff policy is a key priority for the Trump administration- Its use as an international bargaining chip for the U.S. and is seen as a way to revive domestic manufacturing.

But it risks a wider trade war, inflation and potential negative impacts to economic growth. Think “growth drag” of policy uncertain.

1https://ccmg.com/monthly-moves-february-2025/

2 https://www.cnr.com/insights/market-perspectives/march-2025.html#read


Make Your Plan.  Work Your Plan with competent investment partners.

This chart reminds me of two big ideas:

Periods of volatility are challenging and sometimes tempt us to stray from the fundamentals and make changes based on the moment. Our investment partners navigate with disciplined methodology.  They will hold positions that fit.

Risk/Reward Profile Together we weigh the risks and your investment use for now, soon and later.  Your risk management might include traditional strategies using bonds as a hedge for uncertainty, tactical allocation (adaptive, adjusting) and some long term positions allowed to roll for future needs.   Let us connect for the “now, soon, later portfolio conversation” so you can weather today’s news with some calm and confidence.

Beaumont Capital Management accessed through AssetMark’s investment platform has rebranded as AIM, Algorithmic Investment Models.  AI, machine learning, has been part of their investment strategy from their beginning and now is in limelight.

“At Algorithmic Investment Models, we combine human intelligence and AI to create powerful investment strategies designed to uncover opportunities others miss. Our mix of relentless learning and uncommon intelligence helps us build investment strategies that can go anywhere and adapt to what’s happening now.”   https://www.algomodels.com/

Comments of change implemented 3/27/25: 

“We’re generally seeing a lower risk appetite, whether via reduced equity exposure or reduced risk within equities.  We reduced equity exposure in Moderate and Growth portfolios by 10% and moved towards higher quality and defensive equity positions in Conservative and Growth portfolios.”

Reminder that AssetMark’s due diligence assures us that strategists grow in accordance with their core disciplines or adapt their methods in a logical progression.  AssetMark views AIM evolution as positive opportunities for our clients.

AIM’s Qtr 1 2025 client seminar is April 10 at 11 AM est.  Click here for agenda and registration.

Phishing – “Yes, We’ve been hacked.”

Clients received notice from ITP Partners, our practice affiliation with Osaic about a hack that occurred at an administrative level and may access some of your information.  You would have received a letter if it may affect you.

  • AARP reports more than 80% of Americans received at least one data-breach notification in the past year with a record-setting 1.3 billion American Consumer records stolen in the first 9 months of 2024 (Jan/Feb 2025 pg 24)
  • This is increasingly a risk of life online as the March 2025 lead story for Consumer Report.
  • Phishing is the most common form of cyber crime, with an estimated 3.4 billion spam emails sent every day.
  • The use of stolen credentials is the most common cause of data breaches.
  • Google blocks around 100 million phishing emails daily.
  • Over 48% of emails sent in 2022 were spam.
  • Over a fifth of phishing emails originate from Russia.

Life online requires smart security habits.  The best suggestions:

Don’t open any emails that appear odd, vague, unfamiliar.  You don’t have to open every email. Confirm that the communication is real by calling source. Never give away financial information. Don’t act fast.

  • Suggestions for strong security habits.
  • Freeze your credit reports
  • Use long passwords for online accounts (Ask KR about her formula.)
  • Monitor your financial accounts regularly.  ITP offers one year of Equifax Complete Premier to detect identify misuse.  You can call ITP support line at 888-754-3079 or Josh or me for assistance in setting up Equifax.

Wait until AI gets rolling!

Cheers to Wilmot!  Lucky Rochester!!

With this designation, Wilmot joins an elite class of centers that have been through a rigorous evaluation process and selected to be at the forefront of research, community engagement, education and training, and life-saving care in the United States. NCI designation comes with $10 million in funding over five years to expand patient access to clinical trials and develop new research initiatives.

Part of their excellence is the contribution of Holly DeJohn!! - 😊

Issues of Longevity- Senior Realtor, Dennis Shew of Empire Realty.

Life gets complicated with time.  Our client (89) had a lovely home in Penfield, a snowbird nest in Central Florida and a condo on Lake Ontario.  This past year we needed to “offload” all of this property as she proactively transitioned to an independent living community.  Dennis Shew is credentialed as a Seniors Real Estate Specialist, SRES. He was a valuable member of the client transitions team.  Keep him in mind for the needs of family and friends. It’s hard, complicated work. He was above and beyond.

Filming Science Friday – all things Utah!

This filming to be aired April 11 on WXXI radio 2:00 pm est features discussions about the discovery of a snazzy new dinosaur, the comeback of indigenous crops, museums preserve the past in new age ways. Hear Roths clap and cheer in the background!

Note: Kathy will be back in the office April 1st to April 15th. Josh is local, accessible and always appreciated.

Thanks if you've read to the end. You're our kind of people.
Reach out to us with your questions, comments, needs. 

Securities offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., member FINRA /SIPC. Investment Advisory Services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., an SEC-registered Investment Advisor. Waterstone Financial Services is not affiliated with Osaic Wealth, Inc..

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